Sinhala nationalist meddling has started 🤦♂️ Anyone who comprehends geopolitics can see that the peace in Sri Lanka gained through the war victory is merely a temporary bandage covering a bleeding wound. Civil wars cannot begin or end without external support. To keep the then Pro-USA Jeyawardana government in check, Indian PM Indira Gandhi armed and trained oppressed Tamil youths in Sri Lanka. The Indian government never had the idea of carving out a separate Tamil state from Sri Lanka. They feared this would result in a secessionist movement in Tamil Nadu. In fact, if India really wanted to divide the country it could have simply invaded it by saying that Tamils are being oppressed in Sri Lanka, and India is facing a refugee crisis due to Tamils seeking asylum in India. That was the exact narrative used by India to liberate Bangladesh (East Pakistan) in 1971.
India only wanted SL to share power with the Tamils in a way that was equal to or lower than that of India's states. The Indian government will never allow Sri Lankan Tamils to have more power than the State of Tamil Nadu. It was such an attempt by India that led to the Thirteenth Amendment to Sri Lanka's Constitution. While most Tamil militant groups laid down their weapons and agreed to seek a peaceful solution to the conflict, the Tigers refused to disarm their fighters. That escalated into war between India and the Tigers and resulted in the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. After the assassination India was plunged into political instability for the next 13 years, keeping it out of Sri Lankan affairs. The world was also distracted by several major wars during the 1990s like the Gulf War, Rwandan Civil War and etc.
Then September 11 happened. As a result of the September 11 attacks in 2001, the world's attitude toward armed groups changed. On 28 September 2001, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution obligating countries to increase international cooperation in the struggle against terrorism. After 9/11, the US and other western countries sought to destroy the Tigers' military capability. They wanted to turn them into a political force and accept a federal solution within a united Sri Lanka that is amicable to India. Because of this, they brokered a ceasefire and forced the Tigers to accept a federal solution. When the Tigers refused to cooperate, the United States supplied intelligence on Tiger ship movements to SL. This helped Sri Lanka choke off Tiger arms imports until the end of the war.
In India, the Congress party headed by Rajiv's widow won the Indian election and formed the government in 2004. Rajiv's family sought to avenge the LTTE for Rajiv's murder. So the Indian government assisted to end the LTTE completely. That is why Rajapaksa said he had fought India's war by militarily eliminating the tigers. Pakistan and China supplied arms and helped the Sri Lankan government to defeat the Tigers in order to establish a foothold in the SL. The SL is key to taking on their main rival India in a future war. So every major power wanted to end the civil war for different reasons.
Geopolitics and an unresolved ethnic problem sparked the civil war, after which the same geopolitics ended the war. But the ethnic conflict remains unsolved. We are gravely mistaken if we believe this war victory secures lasting peace once and for all. If we don't solve our ethnic issues and heal our scars, we will end up in this bloody cycle once more when geopolitics change. The clock is ticking but no one seems to care ... 🤷♂️
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