Once upon a time, there was a man who found himself being chased by a ferocious tiger in the forest. Fearing for his life, he ran as fast as he could to escape the tiger's pursuit. Eventually, he came across a tall tree and decided to climb up in the hope of finding safety. As he climbed the tree, he noticed that a deadly snake was already coiled up on one of the branches at the top. He realized that the tiger was waiting for him to come down, while the snake above would strike if he climbed higher, he was trapped in a perilous situation. The story often serves as a metaphor for being trapped in a perilous situation with no apparent escape or safe option. This Tamil folktale holds relevance to the current geopolitical situation, particularly in relation to Sri Lanka's position.
Both India and China face mounting pressure to expand their territories, driven by their rapidly increasing populations and resource needs. The inevitability of conflict between India and China looms on the horizon. As a result, Sri Lanka's sovereignty hangs precariously in the balance, influenced by the intricate dynamics of the Indo-China geopolitical standoff. Should the stalemate between India and China be disrupted following a conflict, and if either nation gains the upper hand, the future of Sri Lanka becomes uncertain.
Let's consider India first. Sri Lanka is already part of India's "Greater India (Akhand Bharat)" vision, which aims to absorb all South Asian countries into India. The notion of India claiming the entirety of South Asia may sound absurd. But our Sinhala-Buddhist nationalists know more than anybody else how historical narratives can be selectively shaped to serve specific purposes and promote certain viewpoints. India, like any other nation, can draw upon historical events, cultural connections, and regional interactions to support its claims or aspirations.
Take, for instance, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which lie close to Malaysia and are presently under Indian administration. India's historical claim to these islands, prior to British occupation, can be attributed to their association with the Chola Empire. During their reign, the Cholas utilized these islands as a significant naval base, projecting their influence and power across Southeast Asia. By emphasizing the Chola Empire's historical presence and influence in the region, India asserts a connection rooted in history and culture to substantiate its claim over these territories.
Sri Lanka has a stronger historical connection to India than Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist's favourite historical text, the Mahavamsa, would be instrumental in establishing the Indian narrative that North Indian prince Vijaya established civilization in Sri Lanka, making it a mere extension of India. The only reason India has not acted on their "Greater India" plan thus far is due to China's presence. India has previously attempted to exert its influence over Nepal and Sri Lanka, but those attempts backfired when both countries turned to China to counter India's pressure.
However, India is currently formulating alternative strategies for the near future. One example is India's intention to construct a sea bridge and tunnel linking Sri Lanka to South India, an initiative that has been under discussion with Sri Lanka since 2016. Additionally, since 2011, India has been actively advocating for the establishment of an undersea power transmission line between the two countries, which would increase Sri Lanka's reliance on India for energy. Furthermore, during the economic crisis, there were discussions regarding the acceptance of Indian currency as legal tender alongside the Sri Lankan currency within Sri Lanka just like Nepal.
If India were to emerge victorious in the war against China, it would be free to pursue its "Greater India" plan. In the event of India annexing or bullying Sri Lanka, it is likely that Sri Lanka would experience Tamil dominance due to the influx of Indian Tamils through open borders. This historical pattern can be observed during the British occupation when the Indian Tamil population grew from 0% to 15% within the first 100 years, eventually surpassing the Sri Lankan Tamil community and becoming the second-largest ethnic group in Sri Lanka.
In the event that China emerges victorious in the conflict, they have already devised a policy aimed at destabilizing and fragmenting India into 20-30 separate nation-states, akin to the situation in Europe. China is already supporting the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), a militant separatist group in northeastern India, in their quest for independence for Assam from India. Additionally, China covertly supports Kashmiri rebels through Pakistan. Furthermore, China intends to extend political support to Bangladesh, encouraging ethnic Bengalis in India to break free from "Indian control" and unite with Bangladesh as a unified Bengali nation. According to a recent report by Chinese think tanks, China believes that, in its own interest, it should collaborate with various nationalities such as the Assamese, Tamils, and Kashmiris, supporting them in establishing independent nation-states of their own.
If Tamil Nadu were to gain independence as a separate nation due to China, its ambitions would extend beyond the borders of Tamil Nadu alone. Tamil nationalists in Tamil Nadu already envision a "Greater Tamil Nadu," which entails annexing the northern and eastern regions of Sri Lanka to create a unified Tamil nation. As highlighted in Ranil's speech at Harvard, Sri Lanka must ensure that there is no conflict between India and China, as such a situation would place Sri Lanka's future in a highly challenging position.
In the midst of the impending geopolitical chaos, there are individuals who persist in their misguided desire to revive Sri Lanka's Sinhala-Buddhist glory. Attempting to establish such a glory in the past resulted in a devastating 26-year-long civil war and subsequent economic collapse. If these individuals continue to pursue this agenda, the ultimate consequence of their grand plan to restore Sri Lanka's Sinhala-Buddhist glory will likely be either the annexation or fragmentation of the country. The choice lies between embracing reason or persisting with risky endeavours that may lead to becoming the subject of ridicule in this tragicomedy.
A country's border, much like love, works only if both sides believe in it. While Sinhala-Buddhist nationalists possess the power to shape Sri Lankan history, they cannot alter the geographical realities that surround us. Sri Lanka's independence is just a blip in history's eye. Seventy-odd years? In the grand scheme of history, that's just a blink of an eye. So, let's keep it real and remember that the world keeps turning, history has seen bigger things. The outcome will only be revealed with time. As former Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee said "We can change history but not geography. We can change our friends but not our neighbours".
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