The 2026 Tamil Nadu election will be a critical one, poised to shape the political landscape for years to come. Vijay faces two options: either contest solo, risking a loss and ending up like Kamal Haasan with around a 5-7% vote share, or join forces with Seeman as a minor partner and support Seeman as the chief ministerial candidate. No existing parties except NTK will risk abandoning cash-rich alliances to join hands with the untested TVK. Vijay needs Seeman more than Seeman needs Vijay.
Vijay's voter base primarily consists of youngsters from underprivileged caste sections and Christians, who are already supporting the DMK alliance. VCK's influence will further consolidate the underprivileged caste sections towards DMK, and a strong anti-BJP stance is attracting more Christian votes to DMK. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Vijay can break away a considerable amount of votes from these sections to emerge as a strong player single-handedly.
Seeman proved in the 2024 election that he can break in and secure 4.5% of votes from underprivileged caste sections and Christian voters who traditionally support DMK. Given that both Seeman and Vijay share these common voters, joining hands would help consolidate these votes more effectively than if they were to contest alone.
But there are many problems with this alliance, such as seat sharing, alliance chemistry, Vijay's past history, and campaign financing. Vijay is an untested force, while Seeman is a proven one. We don't know Vijay's actual vote strength, and his fan base alone is definitely not enough to push him to a double-digit vote share. Additionally, there's no guarantee that his fans will vote for him. This uncertainty makes navigating the potential alliance tricky. Vijay may think too highly of himself, but having a huge fan base doesn't guarantee vote share, as proven by Kamal Haasan. Kamal's popularity didn't translate into actual votes.
The reality of politics often differs from fan support. So seat sharing will be a challenging issue. Seeman needs to bargain tough, ensuring he doesn't give away too many seats and risk overshadowing his own influence by inflating Vijay's vote share. Unlike Seeman, who has a strong ideological stand, Vijay lacks a clear stance and may join any alliance that accepts him as the chief minister candidate in the future. It's crucial for Seeman to maintain his leverage and not compromise his position.
Vijay's camp might push for a 50-50 split in seats, which is unreasonable. Seeman has already committed to allocating 150 seats to candidates aged 25-30 in the 2026 elections, indicating that he is not willing to contest in any fewer than that number. This leaves a maximum of 84 seats available for Vijay. Political insiders close to both Seeman and Vijay suggest that Seeman has agreed to allocate only 50 seats to Vijay. If Seeman successfully negotiates this deal and make Vijay accept less than 60 seats, it would be a very good deal for Seeman.
Then there is a problem with alliance chemistry and vote transferability. Seeman's votes will transfer easily to Vijay if Vijay projects Seeman as the Chief Ministerial candidate. However, the bigger question is whether Vijay's votes will transfer to Seeman. Vijay's voters are likely to be diehard fans who want him as Chief Minister, not Deputy Chief Minister. This creates a high risk that they might not support Seeman's candidates and could even work against them to ensure Vijay's emergence with more seats than Seeman.
Another challenge is that Vijay has many fans from linguistic minorities like Telugu, Malayalam, and Kannada speakers living in Tamil Nadu. These fans may not support Seeman because they perceive Seeman's Tamil nationalism as a threat to their existence in the state. We're already witnessing linguistic minority voters from ADMK breaking away and consolidating towards DMK because they see DMK as the only force capable of standing up to Seeman. So, this issue of vote transferability makes it a high-risk venture for Seeman.
Then there are issues with Vijay's history. Seeman is pro-Sri Lankan Tamils and anti-Congress and BJP, whereas Vijay has a proven track record that he doesn't share either of these sentiments. A few months after the end of the Sri Lankan civil war, Vijay went and met Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and expressed his willingness to join Congress if he were to be given the presidency of the Youth Congress, while Seeman had formed the Naam Tamilar movement to oppose the Congress party for their betrayal of Sri Lankan Tamils. Vijay has never shared a single tweet for May 18 Tamil Remembrance Day or November 27, the Maaveral Naal.
Though Vijay is currently portraying himself as anti-BJP, in 2014 he personally met Modi, silently extending support to him against ADMK's Jayalalitha. If opposition parties bring this up, it could be problematic for Seeman to defend because there is no guarantee that Vijay will not form an alliance with Congress or BJP in the future. Such revelations could dent Seeman's credibility. So, this issue also makes it a high-risk venture for Seeman.
Finally, when it comes to campaign finances, Vijay has an edge because he could easily spend 1 crore per constituency to run his campaign if he is contesting around 50-84 seats. Seeman, on the other hand, can't muster that amount of money. Even in the 2024 election, Seeman only spent around 4-5 crores for the entire Tamil Nadu. It is certain that Vijay is not going to finance Seeman's campaigns; he will just ask his party members in those constituencies to cooperate with NTK cadres, and that's all. This puts Seeman at a severe disadvantage. Vijay could emerge with more seats using Seeman's votes and his own financial might, whereas Seeman may not win as many seats. So, this financial issue once again makes it a high-risk venture for Seeman.
Seeman has made very intelligent decisions up to now and has proven himself to be a great political strategist. However, Vijay seems to be his blind spot. Seeman dreams of a Tamil Nadu without the two main ruling Dravidian parties (DMK and ADMK) and national parties (Congress and BJP), parties he believes betrayed Tamils. He envisions two strong Tamil parties emerging to replace DMK and ADMK.
With the belief that ADMK is destined to fail, Seeman sees himself leading one front while Vijay's party becomes the alternative choice, akin to how DMK and ADMK were once together during Annadurai's time, later splitting and contesting alone, ultimately replacing the Congress and Communist parties, the two choices in Tamil Nadu at that time. This is Seeman's rationale behind wanting to join forces. He envisions himself as Annadurai and sees Vijay as MGR. Together, he wants his NTK and Vijay's TVK to become the dominant parties ruling Tamil Nadu alternately in the future.
Considering all these factors, it is very difficult to come to a decision on whether Seeman and Vijay could work together or not. This has more chance of failing than actually working out well for Seeman. There are so many uncertainties, so many ifs and buts. However, missing this option also means Seeman will never fulfil his dream of removing Dravidian dominance in Tamil Nadu. But if he takes this path, there is a risk he might falter and tarnish his credibility, leaving DMK as the dominant force and handing over the alternative force tag to BJP.
If the Seeman and Vijay combination does happen in 2026, it could either propel Seeman to unprecedented prominence and kickstart his journey as the strong contender for the chief minister post in 2031, or mark the beginning of the end of Seeman's dominance in politics. Only time will tell which way it is going to tilt.
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