NTK is consistent in its core ideology and issues, which is its biggest strength. This ensures that their core voter base will not dissipate. A lot of half-baked political analysts think that Vijay will take a bulk of Seeman's votes, but that is not the reality. In 2024, in addition to Seeman's core vote bank growth, it is true that some hardcore Vijay fans voted for Seeman since Vijay had supported the mic symbol before the election. Additionally, some people who don't like Congress, BJP, ADMK, or DMK also voted for him since there was no alternative like Kamal in 2021. It is only this section of votes that will take a hit.
How much will this be? Logically, Vijay can't take away more than 1.5% of Seeman's votes. In 2021, Seeman received 6.7% of the vote, even when Kamal Haasan, who had a clean image, provided an alternative to both national and Dravidian parties. At that time, Vijay fans were also angry with Seeman, and members of Vijay Makkal Iyakkam even put up street posters against Seeman because he teased Vijay for bowing down to EPS during the Sarkar issue. So, when there was an alternative like Kamal and hostility from Vijay fans, Seeman still managed to get 6.7%. That vote is not going to disappear. At most, he could lose 1.5% in 2026 (8.2% - 6.7%).
Can Seeman compensate for this vote loss? He certainly can. Seeman is likely to cross a double-digit vote share because of several factors. The first factor is the Arunthathiyar sub-categorization issue. All Dravidian and national parties support this, but Seeman is cleverly leveraging this issue using the "losers and gainers" theory. While everyone supports the gainers, the losers in this issue are the Tamil Paraiyar and Devendrar castes. Seeman is attempting to consolidate these votes by framing it as an injustice and proposing an increase in the SC employment quota by 5% to compensate for the 3% loss. On the ground, this approach is gaining significant appreciation among educated Tamil Paraiyar and Devendrar communities. This gives Seeman an advantage, especially as Vijay has made no comment on this matter.
In northern Tamil Nadu, polarization will occur. Seeman is trying to counter this by dividing the SC votes into Tamil SC and Telugu SC groups. He points out that ADMK has become a Vanniyar-dominated party (with the 10.5% reservation) and appeals to SC voters to support him instead. This strategy seems to be working on the ground. While Stalin receives the bulk of Tamil SC votes due to Thirumavalavan, Seeman has already positioned himself as a strong second in this voter base in 2024. His efforts will likely further increase his share of these votes, whereas Vijay is likely to get caught in this polarization since he cannot afford to take sides.
In southern Tamil Nadu, Seeman is again trying to checkmate Vijay using the "losers and gainers" theory in the 10% Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) reservation issue, which impacts the south. Seeman is siding with the "losers," who are the OBCs. Vijay, on the other hand, cannot take a position because he belongs to the Pillai caste, which benefits from the EWS reservation, while a significant portion of his fan base comprises SC and OBC communities. Once again, Vijay will find himself caught in the middle without a clear stance.
In the delta and Kongu regions, Vijay might secure more votes than Seeman. However, overall, nothing can stop Seeman from crossing the 10% vote share. Vijay, on the other hand, is unlikely to get more than 5% of the vote if he contests alone. This is because Vijay primarily focuses on general issues, similar to Kamal Haasan. As a result, his support will be limited to his hardcore fan base and a small portion of educated voters looking for change. If identity politics come into play and some Christians and Pillai castes support Vijay, Vijay could potentially secure around 7%. However, in my opinion, this is unlikely to happen. Vijay is sticking to the same old, time-tested formula of Dravidian and Indian parties, whereas Seeman is strategically focusing on those who have been the losers of that formula—which is what will give Seeman the edge in 2026.
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